Oops, They Did It Again

Quebec, that is.  As miraculously predicted yesterday, Quebec finally realized they hadn't submitted any information for the last four days.  "Sacre bleu.  Pas encore?"

[Note: French translation:  "Crap!"]

[As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

But that little blip yesterday was not only la belle province.

It had some help from Ontario.

But before you start wagging your finger at the Big Smoke, as Shaggy sings, it wasn't me. Or at least us.

But which region was it?

Here is a chart  from two weeks ago of regions in Ontario when the government was deciding who to let re-open. There were three repeat offenders.  And yes, Toronto was one of them.

So two weeks later, let's look at it again.

Yowza!  Windsor is on fire. Toronto doesn't even crack the top three.

And this is all due to outbreaks among migrant farm workers in the Windsor area.

Backbreaking work picking fruit and vegetables, all cheek to jowl, often housed in to over-crowed bunkhouses.  Fearful of reporting feeling sick, or missing work. And the cycle continues.

Hmmm.....does that that sounds familiar.  And it is.  I lifted that from last Friday a post about Florida outbreaks.  The six highest counties in Florida are inland farming areas.

That's not to say that those shotgunning beer bros aren't a problem.  But just not in tomato country.

Man, that's kind of freaky.  I'm not going to sleep tonight....

Get Ready For More Of This

I don't know who said it, or who they said it about, but no one area of the country has a monopoly on idiots.  They're everywhere!

So as places re-open, I can see this happening a lot.

This article went on to say one of kids that got infected then went to a bush party and infected a bunch more.

So to quote from a good friend of mine......

So stay tuned to see who else might be candidates for the Darwin Awards.

Canada looking not too bad with new COVID cases.

And COVID deaths remain low.

But unfortunately, there is something fishy here.

Quebec hasn't reported a new case or death in the last three days.  I'm afraid we might be getting ready for another big reporting "error" coming soon.

Or for a nautical twist.....

Another error?  Or being proactive?

And I don't know if this gives me confidence or not.

But I won't ask what happened to Unsinkable I.


And my all time favourite.

I saw this in - where else - Florida.

And it works in any setting.  "Okay boys, let's gator done."

Steady As She Goes.....

COVID cases in Canada seem to have found a new normal - if living in a shoebox can be considered normal - but compared to a lot of other places, that's ain't bad.

And "only" eight deaths yesterday, all in Ontario.

So I guess we can now all get back to the mundane problems of life.

[Mr. Boffo, courtesy of Joe Martin.]

Getting Older Ain't For Sissies

Especially in Canada.

A lot of talk recently about horror of long term care homes in the times of COVID-19.  And how COVID infects - and kills - a high percentage of seniors in care homes.

Seems that this is worldwide, or is it......

The crack Arnotti Thoughts research staff have been digging through the archives and came up with a recent OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development) report looking at total COVID deaths and COVID deaths in long term care homes.

[As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

On the first count, total COVID deaths, Canada has done an excellent job.  Our rate is just over half of the OECD Average.

But on the second count, not so much.

The OECD average of deaths in long term care homes as a percentage of total deaths is 38.

In Canada, that number is 81.

81% of all COVID deaths in Canada are in long term care homes!

Which is great if you don't live in a long term care home.

But as a potential future resident of one of those home, that scares the...well, lets just say I may need a pair of those Depends a bit early.

Luckily, COVID deaths in Canada have dropped dramatically recently.  With only four yesterday.

And new COVID cases are at levels not seen in months.

Even Ontario is playing along.

So whoo hoo!  Time to hit the bars and patios!

But not so fast......we must be careful.  There are still dangers out there......

Digging For Sunshine

Yesterday I said that Florida had the highest 10 day rate of COVID cases in the world.

Now, I didn't check, say Burkina Faso or the Canary Islands, so if their noses are out of joint because they have higher rates, then my apologies.

But if not.....I took a closer look at Florida.  Because what the hey is going on down in the Sunshine State.  I thought Trump said sunshine killed that thing!

So here is a chart of the COVID cases per million population by county.  Sweet mama, those top two are higher than New York.  And Brazil.  [As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

I'm pretty sure it's a result of all those 20-something idiots shotgunning beer and guzzling Jagermeister on the beach.  So lets look at in on a map.

Huh?  The top six COVID counties are all...inland?

Nary a drop of water to be found.

You have to go down to #8 to get to Miami.  And #9 is...Palm Beach Gardens.  (Must have a big retirement home.)

All other major cites (Tampa, Daytona, Orlando, Jacksonville, Pensacola) are all in the low, yellow category.

One other tidbit, is that the highest county, Liberty, in the north, butts up against Hamilton county - the lowest.  Maybe they have a travel ban between the two.

Now I'm no infectious disease expert (although I've had my share of infectious diseases, but that's another story), but I think this is the same feature that is driving up parts of Ontario - farm workers.

Backbreaking work picking fruit and vegetables, all cheek to jowl, often housed in to over-crowed bunkhouses.  Fearful of reporting feeling sick, or missing work. And the cycle continues.

That's not to say there aren't the covidiots shotgunning that beer.  Man that looks good.

I mean, how irresponsible!

But what is driving the total number of COVID cases is due to the beer loving bros, above.

Because those four south east counties (out of Florida's 67) represent 30% of the population. So when Miami sneezes, the whole state gets it.

The solution?  Dunno.  Enforced social distancing?

Or maybe just be like these guys.....

[Another Mr. Boffo from Joe Martin.]

International Day

And...we're baaaack.

So let's take a look at what's been going on in the rest of the world with COVID-19.

This chart shows number of COVID cases - in the last ten days - on a per capita basis. Of course, you are thinking Brazil and Mexico will lead the parade.

Not necessarily......

[As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

Florida is #1.

In the world.

I wouldn't want to be a baseball player.  Or a basketball player or a soccer player.  Or a snowbird.  Because all those athletes, are thinking of having their seasons in the "bubble" (cauldron?) of Florida.

And all the old "hot spots" of Italy and Spain (and even New York & New Jersey) are safely ensconced at the bottom. New York at least for now.

We'll see how well New Yorkers follow instructions once bars and restaurants reopen.  And Torontonians, too, as Canada is tucked in down there at the bottom, too.

People are - rightfully so - pointing their fingers at the covidiots in Florida.

Most of their new cases are kids in their 20's.  But if you don't think this could happen with New Yorkers ("Are you talking to me?) well, let's wait and see.

So Canada seems to have flattened out pretty well.

And Quebec has even passed Ontario, after being the poster boy for what not to do during this whole pandemic.

But Ontario has been no slouch either.  Having dropped below the magic target for quite a while new.

But before we plan the parade, let's make sure Canadians continue to be the good little rules followers that we are.

But when I'm out in my newly tightie-tight patio shorts, I think any problems will take care of themselves.....

June 17th COVID-19 Stats

New cases in Canada  trend still downwards, although a bit of a toe stub yesterday.

[Click on any graph to better see toe stub.]

Our friends in Alberta helping out here over the past week.....

And amazingly - well amazingly considering where they were a month ago - Quebec (they were off the charts) has almost caught up to Ontario.

And Ontario, as we know, is a tale of two solitudes; one clean as a whistle, the other down and dirty.  And different parts of down and dirty Toronto are downer and dirtier.

Here is a map of Toronto divided into five groups.  And the chart below that shows the differences in rates among those groups.

Amazing how different parts of the same city can be.

And also amazing, how different rates are even within the same area.  Here is a break down on the hardest hit area, Group 1.

Boy, somebody needs a hug.  No, that's not the way.

Crunching all these numbers have my head in a daze.  I'm sure they're all correct, though.

Pretty sure....

And Then There Were Three.......

....loser regions still under lock-down!

COVID cases in Ontario have been at almost record lows.....

[As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

...but the government announced they are reopening all of Ontario - except Windsor, Toronto and Peel!!

What the heck are they thinking?

Oh......

Maybe they do know what they're talking about. [This chart is the most recent three-day average.]

Overall Canada looks to be in pretty good shape.

And COVID deaths in Canada continue to decline.

So looking promising for  return to summer for everyone.  Except you losers in Windsor, Toronto and Peel!!



No Patio For You!

Come back 1 year.

Dude, Where's My Patio?

Okay, come on, we in Ontario been good for a while now.  Most of the province has already been cut free.

Now it's time to loosen things up for the rest of us.

Word around the playground is that the Premier has a big announcement to make today.  He said so on Friday, with a big grin on his face.  He hasn't grinned much lately, so something is up.

And overall, Canada's picture looks pretty good.

Although there is one area that has stubbed its toes lately.

Alberta, mainly Calgary, has seen an uptick lately.  And it is mainly 20-somethings.

As Alberta had loosened things up earlier, I guess them 20-somethings started doing what 20-somethings do....


Party, Party, Party

Bush parties, pool parties, tailgate parties, cocktail parties, block parties.  You remember.....

Coming to a neighbourhood near you....?