A Beautiful Day In The Neighbourhood

So back to Florida.

What could be nicer than a relaxing swim in the ocean.

This is  a screen grab from a video following three stingrays, gliding gracefully through the water. Accompanied by beautiful, tranquil music.

But they weren't counting on Hellboy - a very sunburned "Florida man" - making an appearance!

As one commentator observed, “The story here, at least the one anybody actually cares about, is the red dude! Ain’t nobody thinking about the damn stingrays! … Except maybe wondering what they thought when they encountered their 1st red human being. Who the hell is he?”

But he does look a lot like Hellboy.

Way to go Florida man!  We can always count on you.  But tonight you're gonna feel like Hell, boy!

So let's look at a traditional view of Florida's COVID situation.  This chart has blue bars as daily cases and a red line showing 7 day averages.

And as a comparison, here is the Ontario chart.

Couple of points:

• the key to reading two line charts is that if you can see the red line easily, the trend is downwards  If the red line is inside the bar bars, the trend is increasing.
• so generally for the most part for Ontario you can see the red line.  Florida, not so much.
• at its highest, Ontario's rate was about 30 cases per million population.  At its lowest, Florida's rate was 50, and has gone up from there.
• now, in Florida's defense, we now know that for COVID, density kills.  So Florida has more population than Ontario, but only 15% of the land mass.  So its density is ten times as high as Ontario.  So they are rolling a rock up a big hill to start with.
• plus they have way more...wait for it....shotgunning beer bros!

Party on, Garth!

I Wanna Go To Miami!

At least that what it looks like Alberta, Quebec and BC are thinking.  [As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

Everybody, except the centre of the universe, Ontario, is headed in the wrong direction.  In fact, Ontario is the only one headed in the right direction.

What could be the difference?

The other three have all "re-opened" business in the last while.  So be careful what you wish for.

Because wanna see what that could look like after a little while longer...?

I'm not suggesting that there are as many shotgunning beer bros in Edmonton as Miami, but if you look at the blue Alberta line, the recent trend looks familiar.

One big difference. of course - the Alberta rate is 15.  The Miami rate over 500!

But Montreal has also had a bunch of recent cases in the 20-30 demographic from nightclubs.

I have no lived experience to support this, but I suspect when the drinks start being poured and the stories start being told, social distancing takes second seat to "I love you, man!".

"Let's shotgun some beers, bro!"

I am getting a lot of good use out of that picture, huh,

 Anyway, play safe out there.

He's Baaack

Well, he never really went away.  And Florida man has been busy again.

From yesterday's post - and reader comments - first thing I saw this morning.....

Hey, wait a minute.   This guy can't be from Florida, he's kinda, sorta wearing a mask.

He would have crashed into that church naked if he was from Florida.

Anyway,  back to Florida in general.  A few days ago, this was the state of COVID in select precincts. [As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

Florida leading the pack. 

Let's look at Florida, 3 days later, compared to some other areas.

Florida's four day rate has increased by 16%.  Above its already incredibly high rate.

But wait, we're not done yet.  Your visit to Florida could include - Miami!

What are they doing there - giving it out like ice cream?  {Florida man seen giving out...no.]

I'm embarrassed to even put Ontario and Toronto on that chart.

Even Windsor, the hot bed of all thing COVID in Canada, looks as clean as a like a maternity ward.

And speaking of maternity wards....

[More Mr. Boffo from the mind of Joe Martin.]

Why Not Kick A Horse While It's Down?

Or is that kick a dead dog?

Regardless - or irregardless, if you look at the latest Mirraim-Webster edition (see below) - it's fun bashing Florida.

In fact, if you Google your birthday and "Florida man" you are guaranteed to come up with something weird and wonderful.

I literally just did that for my birthday.  The first one - of many -

As I was saying.....

And I hope you can't make out my actual birthday, as I don't want my loyal readers - either of them - to be sending cards and cash gifts.

Anyway, back to Florida.

But first back to Mirriam-Webster....

So the tall foreheads there have decided that irregardless is now a word.  And what does it mean?

Irregardless means...uh...regardless.

You can't make this stuff up.  These posts write themselves.

So back to Florida.  Okay, I'm tired of Florida.  Let's mock somebody else.

They're Baaaaaack.....

No, not them.

Them.  Windsor COVID cases.

And just when you thought we had this licked.  [As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

Looking at Ontario's COVID case history...

....you can see yesterday's blip.


And it ripples all the way up to the Canadian stats.  Makes us all look like a bunch of boobs.

So as a public service, we asked the two smartest men in the world to demonstrate the proper Canadian technique for social distancing.

They weren't available, so these two stood in.

Pretty damn close!

Keep a hockey stick length between you and your buddy at all times.  An occasional butt end in the gut is acceptable, too.

Sunshine Or On Fire State

Let's take a look around the world at all things COVID and see who is flattening and who is igniting.

I think we might all know the answer to the latter.

This chart looks at the 4 day average per capita rate of new COVID cases.  [As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

Florida, no surprise, is red hot. I mean really hot.

But so is Texas, California, Brazil and Saudi Arabia.

Former hot spots, Spain & Italy, are down in the piker region with Canada.

So let's drill into Florida.

So even though (red bar) Florida is miles above the rest of the world, Miami Beach is miles above everywhere in Florida.

What's going on?  Well, in addition to the aforementioned shotgunning beer bros....

....Miami seems also to be home to not only pulsating nightclubs but massive parties at private homes.

Okay, that looks more like a booze cruise, but you get the idea.

Unfortunately, they don't.

As long as they stay in their infected petri bubble, I'm okay.  But as soon as they say "Dudes, let's go rockin' in Canada!" that changes everything.

Luckily most of them couldn't find Canada on a map.  Let alone put a plan together to get here.

Here's hoping, anyway.....

Red Letter Day?

Ontario did something it hadn't done since just about this whole Covid thing began.

Zero Covid deaths yesterday.

And only nine in all of Canada.

[As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

And shockingly, six in the poster child of good Covid practices, British Columbia.  All deaths were in long term care homes.

New Covid cases continue their good trend.

Although Alberta is the guilty culprit yesterday, with 130 new cases yesterday.


In spite of Ontario's trend being terrific over the last few weeks.....

...Toronto has implemented a mandatory face-mask policy for all inside public spaces.  As face-masks are the gold standard in preventing contracting Covid.


Or are they.....?

Oops, They Did It Again

Quebec, that is.  As miraculously predicted yesterday, Quebec finally realized they hadn't submitted any information for the last four days.  "Sacre bleu.  Pas encore?"

[Note: French translation:  "Crap!"]

[As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

But that little blip yesterday was not only la belle province.

It had some help from Ontario.

But before you start wagging your finger at the Big Smoke, as Shaggy sings, it wasn't me. Or at least us.

But which region was it?

Here is a chart  from two weeks ago of regions in Ontario when the government was deciding who to let re-open. There were three repeat offenders.  And yes, Toronto was one of them.

So two weeks later, let's look at it again.

Yowza!  Windsor is on fire. Toronto doesn't even crack the top three.

And this is all due to outbreaks among migrant farm workers in the Windsor area.

Backbreaking work picking fruit and vegetables, all cheek to jowl, often housed in to over-crowed bunkhouses.  Fearful of reporting feeling sick, or missing work. And the cycle continues.

Hmmm.....does that that sounds familiar.  And it is.  I lifted that from last Friday a post about Florida outbreaks.  The six highest counties in Florida are inland farming areas.

That's not to say that those shotgunning beer bros aren't a problem.  But just not in tomato country.

Man, that's kind of freaky.  I'm not going to sleep tonight....

Get Ready For More Of This

I don't know who said it, or who they said it about, but no one area of the country has a monopoly on idiots.  They're everywhere!

So as places re-open, I can see this happening a lot.

This article went on to say one of kids that got infected then went to a bush party and infected a bunch more.

So to quote from a good friend of mine......

So stay tuned to see who else might be candidates for the Darwin Awards.

Canada looking not too bad with new COVID cases.

And COVID deaths remain low.

But unfortunately, there is something fishy here.

Quebec hasn't reported a new case or death in the last three days.  I'm afraid we might be getting ready for another big reporting "error" coming soon.

Or for a nautical twist.....

Another error?  Or being proactive?

And I don't know if this gives me confidence or not.

But I won't ask what happened to Unsinkable I.


And my all time favourite.

I saw this in - where else - Florida.

And it works in any setting.  "Okay boys, let's gator done."

Steady As She Goes.....

COVID cases in Canada seem to have found a new normal - if living in a shoebox can be considered normal - but compared to a lot of other places, that's ain't bad.

And "only" eight deaths yesterday, all in Ontario.

So I guess we can now all get back to the mundane problems of life.

[Mr. Boffo, courtesy of Joe Martin.]

Getting Older Ain't For Sissies

Especially in Canada.

A lot of talk recently about horror of long term care homes in the times of COVID-19.  And how COVID infects - and kills - a high percentage of seniors in care homes.

Seems that this is worldwide, or is it......

The crack Arnotti Thoughts research staff have been digging through the archives and came up with a recent OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development) report looking at total COVID deaths and COVID deaths in long term care homes.

[As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

On the first count, total COVID deaths, Canada has done an excellent job.  Our rate is just over half of the OECD Average.

But on the second count, not so much.

The OECD average of deaths in long term care homes as a percentage of total deaths is 38.

In Canada, that number is 81.

81% of all COVID deaths in Canada are in long term care homes!

Which is great if you don't live in a long term care home.

But as a potential future resident of one of those home, that scares the...well, lets just say I may need a pair of those Depends a bit early.

Luckily, COVID deaths in Canada have dropped dramatically recently.  With only four yesterday.

And new COVID cases are at levels not seen in months.

Even Ontario is playing along.

So whoo hoo!  Time to hit the bars and patios!

But not so fast......we must be careful.  There are still dangers out there......