April 29th COVID Stats

New COVID cases yesterday holding steady.

[As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

But we need them to start coming down.

Let's take a look at just Ontario.  Adding in the Premier's target that he'd like to get below 200 new cases/day (which translates to about 14 cases/million population.) before loosening things up.

Definitely going in the right direction, but as Alice Cooper used to sing - and probably still does - "We've still got a long way to go."  Maybe it is time to start dusting off those recently far too tight patio shorts.

Looking at deaths......

Not making much headway there.   With 79 in Quebec and all 45 in Ontario occurring at nursing homes.

But always some new ideas out there to save us, from vaccine trials to potential antiviral drugs to...other ideas....

April 28th COVID Stats

New COVID cases in Canada.

[As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

Things at least leveling out.  But let's drill down into the provincial level.  Looking at a rolling 7 day average of "New Cases / Million Population".

Well will you look at that.  Quebec and Ontario on a slight downward trend.  And the two Golden Boys, Alberta and BC, ticking upwards.

Deaths from yesterday......

Quebec (83) and Ontario (59) still the main contributors. But they have the largest provinces.  What does it look like on a per capita basis?

Oh.  Quebec and Ontario also way out in front in Deaths / Million Population as well.


But health authorities are stumped that after seven weeks of "stay at home" lock downs, how can there still be this much community spread.

The theory is that too many people are cheating; soccer games in the evening, house parties in basements, family visits (even though not living together), shopping when it's not necessary (buying one or two items).  Lots of different ways to spread the virus.

If everybody was following the rules, those curves should be coming down way faster.

April 27th COVID Stats

Well, the 7 day trend of new COVID is starting to go in the right direction....

[As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

...but the last few days haven't.


And recent deaths have taken an upturn.

Yesterday...wait for it...Quebec had 84 deaths and Ontario spiked to 57.  So unfortunately, almost looks like the 26th was an aberration.

So I guess for the short term all we can do is - what's that old American Express commercial -


Don't Leave Home Without It!

New meaning today.

Some ideas are better than others......

Stylin'

That's not me, by the way.  Although I could certainly understand any confusion.


Some ideas are worse than others......

Clingin'

Thinking I might rather have the virus.


And lots of ideas in between.....


Little Big Man Syndrome...

I Could Do That...

Awww, Mom!

Uhhhh?  Okay.....

Testing Our Patients......

Get it?  Ha ha.  I kill me.

Anyway....we all know testing is key to tackling the COVID problem.  But in Canada we are really dragging our feet and it's driving us crazy.

Or so the experts say.  So here is a chart of testing per million population, by various countries.

Well, we're not leading the pack, but solidly in the middle of the global muddle. Even testing more than the good old U S of A.

But experts say that before we can ease our lock-down restrictions, we need to be testing more.  Almost three times more.

Well that is going to be quite the challenge.  That means we will have test more than the gold standard Israelis. Or Portuguese.  Or Swiss.  Or Italians.  I certainly hope I don't have to continue to stare at myself in the mirror until that happens.

So let's look at yesterday's stats to see if any improvement.  Starting with new cases.....

Another lower'ish day.  I'm guessing if we have another lower'ish day, the red trend line will start to curl down.

The chart of deaths from yesterday......

Also looks encouraging.   Stay tuned....

Which One Is The Real One?

Did the world react too slowly on COVID-19?  How did it (we) not know this would race throughout the world?

Well, an interesting article says it ain't always that easy.  Lots of dangerous health alerts pop up all the time around the world.  In fact, in December alone there were several.  On which one of these should the world have taken action;

• A herdsman infected with the pneumonic plague in Inner Mongolia, the fourth case in a few weeks.
• Three hundred cases of cryptosporidium infection in Sweden, causing gastrointestinal and respiratory issues.
• An Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo — 3,346 cases as of Dec. 15, 2019, two-thirds of them dead.
• A “pneumonia of unknown etiology” in Wuhan, China, on Dec. 30.

I'll take Door #4, Bob.

Sure, hindsight's 20/20.  We all dropped the ball on this one.

Anyway, on to yesterday's Canadian COVID stats, starting with new cases......

[As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

One day does not a trend make (as evidenced by the red trend line) but at least going in the right direction.  But I won't be dusting off my patio shorts and flowered shirts just yet.


For deaths due to COVID-19.

Still trending int he wrong direction.  With again, almost 100 in Quebec and 50 in Ontario.

Wouldn't it be nice if we could just get away from it all.  Remember when.....

I'd love to be able to do laundry again......

April 24th COVID Stats

Well, another day, another bunch of new COVID cases in Canada.

Again with contributions from the new big three; Quebec (778), Ontario (640) and now Alberta (297).

And recent deaths continue at an alarming rate.

The slim silver ling? 

Social distancing for the general public may be working, at least in Ontario, as a staggering 75% of their 763 deaths have occurred in long term care homes.

As a likely future resident of one of those, we need to get this right for them - and me!

Maybe one potential cure for this dreaded disease presented itself yesterday......

[P.S. This is just a joke.  It's a joke.  Tales were that people were actually chugging great gallons of Clorox.  "Wow, feel the burn!"  So many people didn't think this was a joke. Maybe even the guy who floated the idea.....]

Uhhh...They Live In New York..?

No?   Ya got me.

Well, apparently, nearly all the COVID patients in New York are fat and unhealthy. Who knew.

The study says what many have in common is;

• 42% are obese (based on Body Mass Index - BMI - see below, if you dare)
• 54% have high blood pressure (probably helped along by being obese)  and
• 32% have diabetes (Type II also helped along by being obese)
• and obviously several have multiple issues

My take away from this study: if you don't want to get COVID, stay away from fat New Yorkers.

Okay, it's so easy to criticize other people. Hmmm...maybe that's what I'll do today.  Ba da boom!

Anyway, the take away is - stay healthy.  And if you want to see if you are an honourary New Yorker, here is a chart so you can check your own Body Mass Index.  [This may not be for the faint of heart.]

[As always, click on any chart to zoom in.]

Now let's criticize Canadians by looking at yesterday's COVID stats.  Starting with new cases.

That does not look to be flattening.   Let's check the provincial view to see what/who is driving this....

This is a chart shown previously looking at a Rolling 7 Day Average (to take the bumps out) of Cases per million population, by province.

Surprisingly, Quebec looks to be turning the corner, and Ontario pretty flat, even with increased testing.  Hello outdoor patio happy hours...?

Alberta looks to be the real culprit here.  Even BC has a slight uptick.  But they are so low it is hardly an impact.

Looking at yesterday's death total....

Over 100 more deaths in Quebec and over 50 in Ontario.  Although reports are that hospital admissions are down as are COVID patients in the ICU's.  Stay tuned......

Ye Haa!

Gotta love the Americans.

When Canadians are told to practice social distancing, we do it.  To paraphrase a joke from a few posts ago; how do you get 50 Canadians to stay inside?  You say, "You Canadians, stay inside,"

Not the Americans.  They are itching to get back outside.

And it's not just your Trump loving, redneck 'mericans either.

These are are yer Californians.

They're plumb crazy, you say.  Well, let's take a 30,000 foot look.

Here is a global view I've shown before; with Deaths (per million population) on the horizontal scale and Cases (per million population) on the vertical scale.

[As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

Europe is in way worse shape on a per capita basis than Canada is.  Or the US.  European countries fill the entire upper right side (the bad side) of this chart.  High density population countries are the hardest hit.

So the US doesn't look that bad, lower and to the left.   It's only when you dive down to the state level that is gets bad.  Very bad.

And to me the common denominator here is these are all high density population states.  Or states with a few large, high density cities anyway.

[Note:  As much as I point fingers at Quebec, there they are, right next to the USA, in that lower left corner. Not that bad]

Here is a view at the state level.

And a lot of the US policies (and Canadian) have been designed to limit the COVID spread, especially in these high density, urban areas.

It's becoming very political in the US, but a lot of these Americans - protesting and itching to get outside and everybody calling them crazy - are tucked way into that lower left corner,- and they're chafing at having to follow policies designed for those high density, urban areas.


And maybe people in other parts of Ontario (outside the GTA - Greater Toronto Area) feel the same way, too.  Because everything, as always, is about the GTA.   Marsha, Marsha, Marsha!

And Saskatchewan has announced & Manitoba is considering (and they are both low density, largely rural provinces) plans to gradually open things back up, still with considerable restrictions in place.  I wish them well - for all of our sakes!

[I poached this chart from the Toronto Star.]


Okay, too much editorializing and not enough COVID stats!

So yesterday's COVID new cases in Canada....

Hmmm..that curve doesn't look to be flattening.  Middle of the month it was looking pretty good. Although now, Alberta is a solid contributor to that increase.

Mortality....

That doesn't look to be trending in the right way either.  With almost 100 deaths in Quebec yesterday.  And five in Alberta, which is a lot for them.

One of the issues in Alberta is outbreaks in meat packing plants. So farmers can't get their goods to grocery stores.  Same thing in the US.

A big US grocer, Publix, is now purchasing food from farmers - that they have been forced to dump recently - and donating it to local food banks.  Very good.

They have also implemented another worthwhile policy in Florida.

Old Jed's A Millionare!

Based on yesterday's How Low Can You Go? post about crude prices being negative, that price ain't for you and me.

So before you try to become a quick millionaire and head over to your local refinery and say, give me a load of them barrels, and give me $35, too - it don't work like that.

That price is for crude traders.

These are guys who buy and sell future barrels of crude. They will put an order in to buy, say, a million barrels of crude in May.

They don't want the crude.   They intend to sell the crude - to other traders or to a refinery or a wholesaler.

So since all the oil storage tanks and all the oil tankers are full, no one wants the crude.

So unless these traders can sell those "futures", on May 1st they are going to get a million barrels of crude delivered to their office on Wall St!

Awk!

So....we come to yesterday - and everybody is unloading those futures.  None of these guys who buy and sell the crude futures to each other, want them.

So they wind up paying refineries - who also don't want them - to take them.  At least they have some storage tanks.  How many barrels can you fit under your desk. Two?  Maybe three at most.

Anyway, two points;

1. Don't plan on getting rich real quick with a trip to your local refinery.  And,
2. Don't plan on Esso or Shell paying you take take their worthless, stinking, dirty gasoline off their hands.  Because gasoline pricing don't work like that either.

For two reasons:

1. The price of current crude is not negative, only the futures.  It is not even zero.  It's about $20/Bbl.
2. And the price of crude, of course, is only one component of gasoline.  The largest component being....tax.

What's that?  Enough information?  Ohhh....  Too much information.

Okay, on to the big finish.  New COVID cases yesterday.....

Quebec, Ontario and now Alberta continue to be the largest contributors.

And the mortality view......

Another spike in Quebec.  Triple the rate (per million population) than the next highest province, Ontario.  And Ontario more than twice as high as the next province (BC).  Population density must certainly be a contributing factor.


Oh, and if you think it's only Canada's oil & gas sector taking a hit, it is also forestry.

Nobody's buying homes so nobody is building them.  So you don't need lumber.  Two of Canada's biggest revenue generators taking it in the shorts.

But worse than that - no byproduct of the lumber industry; wood chips.  And you know what is made from wood chips....?

Toilet paper!!!

How Low Can You Go?

Something - I think I can pretty safely say - no one ever thought would happen.

Crude prices were less than zero.  WTI (West Texas International) Crude futures were selling for -$36/barrel.

That's right.  Crude producers would have to pay customers to take oil off their hands.  How can that be?

Demand has dropped so much due to the double whammy of COVID-19 reduced travel and the ongoing Saudi/Russian oil price war that producer's storage tanks are all full and all the oil tankers are floating on the oceans, also full.

This is particularly devastating for the Canadian economy. And the Canadian government, which relies on oil for so much of its revenue.  Especially when it is spending money at record levels.  Sending money to just about every individual and every business in the country.

Yowza!

Okay, on to some equally depressing news!  Yesterday's COVID stats, first new cases.

Ouch.  More bad news.  Of course, Quebec (with almost 1,000 new cases) and Ontario (600) lead the way.  But poor old Alberta is now severely infected.

If having to pay people to take your products wasn't bad enough, there are large COVID outbreaks in three meat packing plants.   Almost 350 new cases in Alberta yesterday.

New COVID deaths in Canada....

Still tracking at recent levels.  And with local transmission in decline, a lot of these are continuing to tear through long term care and group homes.


Any good news?  Well, none of the Leafs, Raptors or Blue Jays lost yesterday.

Hey, you take what good news you can find.

April 19th COVID Stats

New cases lower for a second day.

With no new cases in BC or Alberta.

Quebec still leads the pack, with Ontario now in second place.  This could be as a result of increased testing in Ontario.  Which is likely a good thing.


New deaths have returned to what looks like recent levels.

With Quebec again leading the provincial parade.

Tha-tha-tha-that's all folks!