What A Bunch Of Turkeys

Another day, another new high for the 7 Day Case rate in Canada.  [As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

"Experts" are saying this is likely due to large family gathering during Thanksgiving.  As virtually all provinces are seeing increases.

[School re-openings are another very likely culprit.]

Alberta & BC especially.  Although Ontario is certainly a contributor.

And by Ontario, of course, I mean Toronto.  Here is the chart of Toronto, with case rates shown per 100,000 population. [Seems fanciful thinking that rate will get back to 25 in a week.]

So how are those bar closures working for ya?  Really seemed to have done the trick.

But more likely, as mentioned above, the result of coturkdiots (is that like turduken?) gobbling up, well, turduken.

So to test that theory, let's look at other Ontario regions that have not had their bars & restaurants & gyms & movie theatres closed.

Here is a previous chart showing the Ontario regions.  Virtually all the of the Greater Tornoto Area (GTA) and Ottawa are above the golden 25 limit.

So based on the positive comments when a similar chart was shown last week for global changes [okay, no positive comments, but no negative ones either! Okay, no comments at all.] here is the same Ontario chart, but adding in data from a week later.

It is more complicated but the dark blue is recent data and light blue from last week.  You really need to double click this one.

So the rich keep getting richer and the sick (the GTA) keep getting sicker, one week later.  Is it due to Thanksgiving?

The GTA have had their bars & restaurants closed.  What about regions without restrictions?

Like anything with "science" it's not cut and dried.  

Some smaller regions near the bottom (North Bay, Haliburton, Thunder Bay, Hastings, Guelph, Haldimand, Peterborough, Sudbury) have all seen increases.  So restaurants aren't a factor there. Gobble gobble.

But others - where the light blue line is longer than the dark blue - (Ottawa,  Hamilton, Waterloo, London, Windsor) have all seen decreases.

The link among these? They are all university towns.  At whom everybody was pointing fingers as ignoring Thanksgiving "please stay home" orders.

So, science has spoken! There's no conclusion.

Stay tuned for tomorrow, when we drill down into where the hey in Toronto are all these case increases coming from.  We gotta get to the bottom of this and get those bars & restaurants back open.

[Full disclosure, Arnotti Thoughts is sponsored by the Toronto Bar & Restaurant Association.]

Well, it should be!