Called It!

As this site hypothesized a few days ago (hypothesized only, no conclusions, as no testing was done, which is the basis of the scientific method!) "We use science" is the new "You're a racist" to shut down debate.  And bars & restaurants.

This site also hypothesized (okay, wondered) what science (data) was used to shut down Toronto bars & restaurants & gyms. 

My upspoken hypothesis was that "no data was used". It was more "the squeaky wheel gets the grease" theory.  In that Toronto's Medical Officer of Health, Dr. Eileen Devilla.....

....who - based on science - had been pleading with the Ontario government's Chief Medical Officer, Dr. David Williams, to shut everything down. 

Well, the government just released the information they used to shut the bars & restaurants & gyms.

And guess what?

No data.

In fact, it was have been the opposite of using data.

So let's look at the "data".  And by data, I mean the data from this article, as I don't have access to the report.

The report looked at Toronto between August 1st and October 24th, although bars & restaurants were shut down Oct 9th.  There were reported 27 outbreaks (outbreak meaning more than one case reported) at Toronto's restaurants.  So that is 27 events over 9 weeks, 3 per week.

For 7,500 restaurants!

So for the 0.3% (27/7,500) of the restaurants that had cases, they shut them all down.  Talk about bringing the hammer down.

So have those restaurant lockdowns brought the rate down?

You be the judge. So I'm guessing the medical folks never used any data - or science - to begin with.  

Knew it all along!

So now that this report has come out, Ontario's Premier, Doug Ford, is telling the medical folks to go back to the drawing board to come up with some alternatives.

Here's one; shut down the 0.3% of violators and leave the rest alone!  In fact, bringing the hammer down on the violators will keep the rest on their toes.

And me in my cups!  Cheers!

Bringing Down The Hammer!

 So this...er...street entrepreneur...

...was just sentenced to 13 years for attempted murder of trying kill another...street entrepreneur.  

Except this was at a Scarborough playground.

However, although he shot at the guy ten times, he missed (can anybody be a street entrepreneur?) but did hit a five year old girl in the stomach and her nine year old sister in the leg.

The Crown wanted 15 years, but the judge said there were mitigating circumstances. T'Quan expressed remorse.  So he gave him 12 years.

But then the hammer came down. An aggravating factor (in addition to the fact of shooting wildly with 11 kids on the playground - mitigating factor; he only hit two) was that he was under a 10-year firearms ban at the time of the shooting and had eluded police for two years.

So the judge looked right at him and said, "Ha ha, mister, now it's a lifetime ban!  Yeah! You want more?  You want more?"

So maybe he didn't say that, but he did give him the lifetime ban. I'm sure his jaw dropped when he heard that.  "You've outfoxed me this time, judgeman!"

And what was the first judge thinking, with the ten year ban? That ten years is long enough to be without a gun?  Especially for a gangbanger - I mean street entrepreneur? Or he'd forget how to use it? 

Anyway, sentenced to 12 years, but with our parole eligibility, he'll be out in four.  Remember, he expressed remorse.

The message here? Don't mess with the Canadian judicial system!  Because after you try and kill somebody, you'll be looking at four years before you can try and kill him again.  With no gun this time! Unless you steal one, of course. But we've got that covered, too - you're not allowed to, mister!   Yeah!

So What The Hey Is Going On In Toronto?

As advertised yesterday, let's drill into the evil Toronto covid-19 numbers. Looking at yesterday's chart, things aren't looking good for the largest city in Canada (and fourth largest in North America).

[As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

Toronto is way, way over the Government's new "7-day case rate/100,000 population" target of 25 .

So who are the bad actors?

Here is a chart of Toronto neighbourhoods, showing recent case rates/100,000.  The legend is, the darker the blue, the more poo-poo.

So let's drill into some of these darker - and lighter -neighborhoods.  Definitely zoom in on this one.

So #1 is Mount Olive (upper left corner), coming in at an astonishing rate of 285.  More than ten times the government target!  

The City of Toronto describes Mount Olive as a culturally diverse community.  So lots of large families living in small apartments/townhouses. 

Similar descriptions for other three, Dorset Park a "Priority Neighbourhood" and St. James Town is Canada's most densely populated neighbourhood and Oakridge is also described a culturally diverse.    So a lot of similar themes here. And they are all well over the target.

But let's look at some of the lighter coloured neighbourhoods.  And at the risk of being politically incorrect, it is not just lighter colours on the map, ahem....

For those that know Toronto, favourable addresses can be found throughout The Beaches, Rosedale and Lawrence Park (highest income per capita in Canada - $622,000).

But everybody knows Rosedale, so lets look at that.

Last week there were seven Covid cases in Rosedale. With Rosedale's population of about 20,000, that would mean 7 cases per 20,000.  To compare that to the government's stats of "per 100,000" you would multiply by 5 (5 x 20,000 = 100,000).  

So Rosedale's rate would be...hmmm...carry the five, hmmm...subtract the hmmm....okay 7 x 5 = 35 (33 with some rounding).

What?  33?  Rosedale is over the government's lockdown target!  Rosedale?

And that is only 7 cases in a week.  One per day, for 20,000 people and they are over the target!

That is one tough target.

And that's all I have to say......

Are you still there?  Actually, I have a lot more to say, but....nevermind.....

 

What A Bunch Of Turkeys

Another day, another new high for the 7 Day Case rate in Canada.  [As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

"Experts" are saying this is likely due to large family gathering during Thanksgiving.  As virtually all provinces are seeing increases.

[School re-openings are another very likely culprit.]

Alberta & BC especially.  Although Ontario is certainly a contributor.

And by Ontario, of course, I mean Toronto.  Here is the chart of Toronto, with case rates shown per 100,000 population. [Seems fanciful thinking that rate will get back to 25 in a week.]

So how are those bar closures working for ya?  Really seemed to have done the trick.

But more likely, as mentioned above, the result of coturkdiots (is that like turduken?) gobbling up, well, turduken.

So to test that theory, let's look at other Ontario regions that have not had their bars & restaurants & gyms & movie theatres closed.

Here is a previous chart showing the Ontario regions.  Virtually all the of the Greater Tornoto Area (GTA) and Ottawa are above the golden 25 limit.

So based on the positive comments when a similar chart was shown last week for global changes [okay, no positive comments, but no negative ones either! Okay, no comments at all.] here is the same Ontario chart, but adding in data from a week later.

It is more complicated but the dark blue is recent data and light blue from last week.  You really need to double click this one.

So the rich keep getting richer and the sick (the GTA) keep getting sicker, one week later.  Is it due to Thanksgiving?

The GTA have had their bars & restaurants closed.  What about regions without restrictions?

Like anything with "science" it's not cut and dried.  

Some smaller regions near the bottom (North Bay, Haliburton, Thunder Bay, Hastings, Guelph, Haldimand, Peterborough, Sudbury) have all seen increases.  So restaurants aren't a factor there. Gobble gobble.

But others - where the light blue line is longer than the dark blue - (Ottawa,  Hamilton, Waterloo, London, Windsor) have all seen decreases.

The link among these? They are all university towns.  At whom everybody was pointing fingers as ignoring Thanksgiving "please stay home" orders.

So, science has spoken! There's no conclusion.

Stay tuned for tomorrow, when we drill down into where the hey in Toronto are all these case increases coming from.  We gotta get to the bottom of this and get those bars & restaurants back open.

[Full disclosure, Arnotti Thoughts is sponsored by the Toronto Bar & Restaurant Association.]

Well, it should be!

   

Not Too Shabby

It's (usually) nice when Canada gets recognized on the world stage.  

Or in this case, in the latest Sasha Barat Cohen's "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm".

The scene pans to Barack Obama, and Borat states that since Obama was elected President of the United States, many Africans have become world leaders.

Ouch!  But hilarious.

So what else has our African Prime Minister been up to?

Well, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just released their 2020 Fiscal Monitor Report.

This report reviews the fiscal responses of world governments to the Covid-19 Pandemic crisis.

The report shows that all governments have been shoveling money out the door, but evidently Trudeau has been using the largest shovel.  In the world.

Canada leads the world is virtually every category.  And by "lead" I mean the highest % GDP spending, debt, fiscal imbalance and other categories I've never heard of.

But I don't have to worry about paying it back.  The people who will be paying it back - and they will be paying it back all their lives - are currently all under the age of four.

"No way!" adherents of Modern Monetary Theory say;  "Governments never need to pay it back.  And with current interest rates, borrowing is essentially free."  And for people of a certain age, low interest rates are all they have ever known.

But for people of a different certain age, they remember back to the early 1980's.  Where after years of government spending to get us out of recessions.....

...inflation exploded and interest rates spiked to above 20%. 

And when that happens - and it will - interest payments will become unmanageable.

You need look no further back than Greece in the same 1980's. 

Year's of government overspending led to soaring inflation, high deficits and, finally, defaulting on loans to the IMF. [The first time in history that a developed country defaulted on an IMF loan. Which may be why the IMF publishes these reports.]

And with the progressive left about to take over in the US.....

...Trudeau will have lots of company in the Home Depot shovel aisle.

  

"It's An Ill World After All"

 In spite of what the Canadian Public Health Authorities would have you believe, Canada is doing not too badly in the global view of covid cases.

Here is a chart from a week ago showing countries' weekly covid case rates.  Weekly, rather than total rates, being an indication of which countries are experiencing the worst outbreaks right now.

[As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

European countries in yellow dominate the hit parade.  Czechia leads the way, with a rate of 737.

Canada, in red, is well down the list.  Even the US is only 11th.

The next chart compares rates a week later; comparing the Oct 18th data (above) with yesterday's weekly rates.

The chart is a bit complicated, but to highlight some points;

• Czechia still leads the pack, but now its rate has increased from 737 to over 900.
• Eight of the top nine countries are in Europe, with virtually all seeing an increase in rate.
• Canada still well down the list, with our rate essentially unchanged.
• The US still at 11.
• China still at the bottom, at zero. Boy, can those totalitarian states really get their people to toe the line!

So what about Canada?  Our rate of increase has leveled off somewhat.

At least compared to what it was three weeks ago.

So who cares about Canada - what about Toronto!!

This is an updated chart showing 7 days case rates, with Ontario's "lockdown" target of 25 cases per 100,000 population (most of the world uses per million population).

The Toronto case rate continues its upward march seemingly unabated.

So two offsetting events took place about this time. Toronto closed its bars and restaurants on Saturday, Oct 10th, and the (super spreader?) Canadian Thanksgiving occurred at the same time.  

From my read. closing those bars and restaurants didn't do anything to quell the outbreaks.  In fact, maybe mitigated the impact of Thanksgiving.  [Said the guy who frequents bars more than Thanksgiving tables.]

I'm betting on Thanksgiving as the culprit, as stories from university campuses - in spite of health officials pleading with people to stay home, specially asking university kids to not go home - according to one pundit, campuses looked like Grand Central Station.

I guess some people felt those restrictions were meant for...other people.

So the question is, if rates keep rising, what trigger can governments pull next?  Putting a few more regions into lockdown?  Putting all regions into lockdown?

That certainly seemed to work in June and July.

The only thing preventing that is can people be trusted to do the right thing?

Ah, what does he know.

"We've Still Got A Long Way To Go"

Toronto has been moved back to a modified Stage 2 for Covid-19 purposes; bars and restaurants, gyms & movie theatres are closed.

Why?

Because according to the tall foreheads in our public health department, Toronto is over the (recently made up) target of a "7 day case rate per 100,000 population" of 25.

Toronto was "moved back" for 28 days.

So how we doing...?

We are 14 days into the 28 day rollback, without a lot of results. So as my favourite rocker from my salad days, Alice Cooper, used to sing..."We've Still Got A Long Way To Go".

In fact looks like Toronto is going in the wrong direction.   

Let's hope they turn around fast, or Premier For may be saying "No More Mr. Nice Guy!".

Is There A Hidden (Or Not So Hidden) Agenda Here?

"If it bleeds, it leads." is the old news axiom.

So if you listen to the Toronto media about Covid-19, we are all about to be extinguished by a huge second wave.

So, make sure you stay shuddering in your little house or apartment.

Tighter, tighter, tighter restrictions. 

Doesn't matter the cost - this is for your own good.

Wave 2 is going to kill us, Toronto Public Health tells us!!

Well, let's look at some of the city's own data.

This on hospitalizations, which the experts tell us is more important than simple case counts. Because we cannot "overwhelm the system". 

See! It's out of.....whaaat....?

It's going down?

Well, I guess they are trying to sell newspapers or clicks or likes.  Or fear.

"If it bleeds, it leads." didn't become the news axiom by mistake.

So go after the violators and leave the rest of us alone to lead our (generally responsible) lives.

Sheesh....

A Sports Two-Fer Is Guaranteed

Huh? 

What are you talking about?

Well, the Lightning won the Stanley Cup for Tampa....

...the Lakers won the Larry O'Brien Trophy for LA....

...so now either the Rays or the Dodgers....

....will be bringing a World Series title to their city. 

So either Tampa or LA will be a two sport champion city.

Very rare when it is guaranteed before the winner is even determined.  

And who is the favourite?

Well, Vegas will tell you one thing.

At the start of the season the Dodgers were favoured to win (450-1).  Tied with the Yankees.  Tampa was at 1,400-1.  It is closer now, but LA is still favoured.

[BTW, the Jays were listed at 10,000-1.  Ouch....]

So Vegas has them as favourites, but as for the fans....?

Let's just use one David & Goliath stat;

Two of LA's players (Clayton Kershaw & Mookie Betts) have virtually the same salary (26M$) as the entire Rays team (28M$).  So I think a lot of the country will be pulling for the little guys.

And who knows, if they do win, Tampa might be in line for a Trifecta, if Tom Brady can turn around the moribund Tampa Buccaneers and win the Superbowl - which is being held in Tampa.

So far they are in first place in their division.   Never count out TB12...

When We Last Spoke.....

 ....Covid was out of control in Canada.

And....it still is.           [As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

Now it's only a short time, but Ontario seems to have turned a bit of a corner.

Two ways to look at this;

1. closing those bars and restaurants last week was the right thing to do!
2. wait a second, it's only been a week and it takes ten days to two weeks before changes are seen, so it was turning around anyway - so closing those bars and restaurants was the absolute wrong thing to do!

Both groups will claim they "use science", when we all know, neither do.

But Ontario must be i) doing something right or 2) very lucky, as the other provinces are all going in the wrong direction.

And you don't need a science degree to understand that.

And speaking of understanding and science......