Is There A Hidden (Or Not So Hidden) Agenda Here?

"If it bleeds, it leads." is the old news axiom.

So if you listen to the Toronto media about Covid-19, we are all about to be extinguished by a huge second wave.

So, make sure you stay shuddering in your little house or apartment.

Tighter, tighter, tighter restrictions. 

Doesn't matter the cost - this is for your own good.

Wave 2 is going to kill us, Toronto Public Health tells us!!

Well, let's look at some of the city's own data.

This on hospitalizations, which the experts tell us is more important than simple case counts. Because we cannot "overwhelm the system". 

See! It's out of.....whaaat....?

It's going down?

Well, I guess they are trying to sell newspapers or clicks or likes.  Or fear.

"If it bleeds, it leads." didn't become the news axiom by mistake.

So go after the violators and leave the rest of us alone to lead our (generally responsible) lives.

Sheesh....

A Sports Two-Fer Is Guaranteed

Huh? 

What are you talking about?

Well, the Lightning won the Stanley Cup for Tampa....

...the Lakers won the Larry O'Brien Trophy for LA....

...so now either the Rays or the Dodgers....

....will be bringing a World Series title to their city. 

So either Tampa or LA will be a two sport champion city.

Very rare when it is guaranteed before the winner is even determined.  

And who is the favourite?

Well, Vegas will tell you one thing.

At the start of the season the Dodgers were favoured to win (450-1).  Tied with the Yankees.  Tampa was at 1,400-1.  It is closer now, but LA is still favoured.

[BTW, the Jays were listed at 10,000-1.  Ouch....]

So Vegas has them as favourites, but as for the fans....?

Let's just use one David & Goliath stat;

Two of LA's players (Clayton Kershaw & Mookie Betts) have virtually the same salary (26M$) as the entire Rays team (28M$).  So I think a lot of the country will be pulling for the little guys.

And who knows, if they do win, Tampa might be in line for a Trifecta, if Tom Brady can turn around the moribund Tampa Buccaneers and win the Superbowl - which is being held in Tampa.

So far they are in first place in their division.   Never count out TB12...

When We Last Spoke.....

 ....Covid was out of control in Canada.

And....it still is.           [As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

Now it's only a short time, but Ontario seems to have turned a bit of a corner.

Two ways to look at this;

1. closing those bars and restaurants last week was the right thing to do!
2. wait a second, it's only been a week and it takes ten days to two weeks before changes are seen, so it was turning around anyway - so closing those bars and restaurants was the absolute wrong thing to do!

Both groups will claim they "use science", when we all know, neither do.

But Ontario must be i) doing something right or 2) very lucky, as the other provinces are all going in the wrong direction.

And you don't need a science degree to understand that.

And speaking of understanding and science......

And Let's Not Even Talk About Boobs

 

Who's Next!

The Ontario government has set a limit for a 7 day Covid case rate (per 100,000 population) of 25.

Anything above that and a region may go back into "Lockdown".

So, who's on the bubble?   [As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

Well, who isn't on the bubble is Brampton (Peel Region), Toronto and Ottawa.  They had their bars, restaurants, gym and movie theatres closed last week.

Tomorrow, York Region (the region directly north of Toronto) joins them.

But three other regions are also well over the target threshold; Eastern Ontario (I'm looking at you, Prescott), Halton (tony Oakville & Burlington) and Hamilton (where 69 members of a spin class caught it last week.) 

So far the government hasn't pulled the trigger on them....yet.

So while we are waiting for that to happen, let's look around the world.

If you read the US media, the US is the epicenter of Covid-19.  Spiraling out of control.

Well, let's look at the most recent data....

The US is up there, in dark blue, but Europe looks to be the one spiraling out of control (all the yellow bars).  Canada remains well down the list. Sweden still just behind us.

For any eagle-eyed readers, you have to divide the global numbers by ten to compare these rates to Ontario's.

China, the biggest country in the world has had few covid cases and no Covid-19 deaths in October!

And no deaths in September.  Or August.

In fact, their last (reported) Covid-19 death was April 17th.

Well done, China!

They must have better doctors than the rest of us......

[Joe Martin's Mr. Boffo.]

Any Surprises Here?

So unless you've been locked away in your house for six months - wait a minute, you have! - how can you not be aware of media biases in major cable news networks.

Fox is right wing and backs Trump, CNN is left wing and supports Biden. 

Supporters of both networks will deny this;  

• "Fox isn't right wing, it is balanced." 
• "CNN isn't left wing, it is balanced."

But how balanced are they?  I would hypothesize that it is not balanced. But let's use science to find out.

Ha ha, I'm not going to use science! I'm going to use a one day snapshot of both websites.

Fox has the word Trump mentioned 72 times on its home page.

And Biden.....?

Biden is mentioned 58 times on Fox's home page.

Now CNN.  CNN has the word Trump mentioned 19 times on its home page.

Biden.....?

Twice, but further down the page.

Conclusions:

• Fox must have a larger home page.
• No science at all, but suspect Fox mentions Trump in glowing terms 72 times, and Biden none.
• CNN, same thing but different.
• As far as testing the original hypothesis of whether coverage is balanced....you can draw your own conclusions.

And as far as science goes, it is the new "racist". 

When someone used to be called a racist, it was shocking and meant something.  Now it means nothing.

And now, to shut down a conversation, all you have to say is, "Sorry, we use science" and wag your finger.

Well, no you don't.  I doubt anyone uses science. At least not the right way.

Because science is not black and white.  Unless you do an experiment, which is the foundation of the scientific method.

But until then it's still pretty easy to be......

And with apologies to Thomas Dolby.....

Same Old, Same Old

 So the Covid case numbers in Canada keep on keeping on.

Or do they?

Several of the larger provinces decided to stop publishing stats on weekends (we are sooo stressed). And now the federal government apparently has decided to do the same thing.

So really the stats they report are now meaningless.

And for contact tracing, the city of Toronto decided that because case counts are so high they would...increase staff to handle the workload?

No, Are you new here?

No, they decided to stop all together (we are sooo stressed).

So what information could be meaningful?

Many people say looking at hospitalizations is a better gauge of the pandemic.

And we were told repeatedly we need to flatten the curve so as not to overwhelm the healthcare system before a vaccine becomes available.

The objective was never to get to zero cases until the vaccine arrived.

So here is some data on cases and hospitalizations in Ontario.  I'm looking at two 15 day periods, one late May the other early October.

Yes, cases are higher now but hospitalizations (ie. severity) are lower.

And %Hospitalizations are much lower (4% now compared to 12% then).

I guess for Toronto Public Health it is easier just to say, shut everything down. This doesn't require detailed analysis or a more nuanced approach - that could help small businesses or improve people's mental health.

And I guess the Toronto School Board is now taking the same approach; they have cancelled all final exams.

When the headline says "some Ontario boards", that should read "Toronto boards".

Of course they are good reasons for this;

• they have had so few classes what could they possibly be tested on.
• the students are sooo stressed
• make up your own reason here.

If I was a university and I got an application from a kid with an A+ grade in Toronto, I'd say, "Hey that's great, but I'd like you to take one more little test here. Yeah."

[Click to enlarge.  Another from Joe Martin's Mr. Boffo.]

The 50,000 Foot View

 Since the Canadian government and most of the provinces took the weekend off from reporting Covid cases - during which time they are saying it is a crisis and a nightmare!! - let's look again at the Global picture.

If only to put the rantings and ravings in perspective. 

Here is the chart from last week.  [As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

Comments on this;

• highest rate was ~350 cases / million population, Israel.  
• Global average about 40.
• Sweden - suspiciously? - at 0.
• Canada well down the list.

Here is the most recent view, this time looking at a 6 day average rate.

Comments on this chart;

• Highest rates now in the 500 range.
• Canada still well down the list. Although our rate has increased from ~40 to ~50.
• USA has gone from ~80 to 180.
• Sweden has climbed up to just under Canada.
• China still the lowest.

But let me highlight some continents.  Starting with European countries.

Those guys have grabbed all the top spots!  And now the top rates are in the 500 cases / million population range.

They even bumped Israel down to #4. 

Now lets add in Central & South America.

Hey!  Let Go My Eggo!  Now all the top spots are taken.

So even though Canada is well down the list, several of our provincial governments have reverted to "lockdown" mode.  Endangering, I say, many, many small businesses and their employees. 

In fact, the World Health Organization - incredibly, who has been the chickenest of all Chicken Littles, wagging their fingers at any country that didn't have armed guards policing the streets - is now saying it is wrong to lock down economies.

Many say hospitalizations and people in ICU's area a better indicator of problems than case counts..

I say the cost of our current lockdown may not be felt immediately, but could haunt us for years.

Rather than punish the vast majority of responsible restaurant, bar & gym owners, targets the violators. And come down hard on them.

This marks the end of the unhinged ranting session.  You may now resume your normal activities.

Injured?

Hit By Bus While Distracted By Big Sign?

 Call us!

This Will Come As No Surprise.....

...to anyone who's be paying attention.

The same, continued usual suspects lead the Covid parade in Ontario.  [As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

Week after week.

Not sure what's going on in Ottawa - and that's not a political comment - but if we drill down into Toronto, it's also the usual....suspect.  

I've divided Toronto into five regions, per the map and the 5 Day Covid rate is shown on the chart.

So the Northwest is the continued hotspot.  But now, all regions of Toronto are well above the Ontario average.

As a comparison, here is the chart from mid June.

The scales aren't the same, but either Groups 2-5 have gotten worse or maybe Group 1 has come back to the pack.  But they are all still terrible.

Bars and restaurants are all getting the bad rap for the spread (except from me).

So maybe once winter comes this will go away once everyone in Canada will get back in their houses.

Well maybe not everyone....

This Doesn't Look Good

 Recent Covid cases in Canada.

I was going to say, we've seen this movie before - but we haven't.  [As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

We've never seen the 7 Day Average this high.

And I don't like to point fingers - okay, yes I do - but our bon amis look to be the main source of problems.

Again.

Although all the provinces are well above the good old days of July and August.

Wow, is there anything that could make us feel better?

Well, let's look at the rest of the world.

Here is a chart of new Covid cases in the last three days around the world.

A couple of points:

• the much maligned US is in the middle of the pack.  Unbelievable if you listen to the US media.
• Canada even slightly farther down the list.
• top of the list?  Israel and Spain.  Didn't see that coming.
• bottom of the list? China and Sweden.  Also kind of unbelievable.
• And, of course, if there are some eagled counters out there, I haven't shown all the world's countries, as there are more than 37.  I think there are over 50.

So I guess everybody just has to obey al the rules.

Everybody.

 

A Plethora Of....Imbeciles

A house in Markham, a town just north of Toronto, has been busted for running an illegal casino.  [Click on any picture to zoom in to see how the rich and famous live.]

I guess you really do have to call it a mansion.

Some highlights of the casino;

• 20,000 sq ft mansion
• 53 rooms
• full service "spa" facility
• 1M$ in cash seized
• full service restaurant with 4,000 bottle of wine and 1.5M$ worth of booze
• 45 people arrested, 33 charged with criminal offenses
• 11 fire arms, including a AR-15 assault rifle.
• armed guards outside

You get the idea.

Now originally I thought this was a Covid-19 "backyard party" story with a bunch if imbeciles partying away, but no.  Just a good old fashioned illegal booze can and illicit spa.

 

Refreshing to hear that regular criminal activity is still going on in these crazy covid times.  Good on them!

Not sure if these guys were found there or not......

[More of Mr. Boffo from Joe Martin.]