Does It Really Matter.....?

So how's that working for you?  That social distancing thing?

Different countries have been using different strategies to fight COVID-19.  And the folks at the University of Oxford have developed an index to track who is doing what.

It is called a Stringency Index and is based on seven indicators of stringency - all given equal weight: 

• school closings, 
• workplace closings, 
• cancellation of public events, 
• shutting down of public transport, 
• public information campaigns, 
• restrictions on internal movement, 
• and controls on international travel

Surprisingly, they did not include: people must dress as plague doctors.   See April 6th for more info on that.

Anyway, the higher the score, the more "locked down" or "woke" the country is.

[As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

Some observations:

• Canada seems to be right in the middle of the pack.
• several hard hit European countries (red arrows) look to be quite locked down.
• the USA is near the bottom
• and Sweden, as an experiment, did not enact many or any restrictions.

So how is that working for everybody?  Can we tell by looking at infections or deaths in each country.  Glad you asked.

If being more stringent was helping, we could expect to see something like this.

Increasing "stringency" would result in fewer cases (per million population).  The green area is the sweet spot, less than the global average of per capita cases.

However, here is what the data actually shows.

No real trend.  In fact, the trend almost going in the wrong direction.

What about deaths per million population.

Nope.  The countries with the toughest measures seem to be faring the worst.

Now, the people who came up with this said it is a very rough measure.  It depends on when countries put these measures in place, were they well enforced, how accurate is country's the caseload reporting, etc. etc. 

So as far as I can see, the moral of the story is, smoke 'em if ya got 'em.

April 15 COVID Stats

I have added a new line, a rolling 7 day average, to the New Cases chart, to get a sense of any trends.

[As always, click on any graph to zoom in.]

So perhaps the Canadian rate of new cases is starting to level out.

Deaths, almost half of which are in long term care homes, continue at a high level.

Yesterday's split equally between Quebec & Ontario.


Now, going back to taking a higher level view, comparing Canada & the US in "Cases per Million Population"....

The last time I showed this was April 3rd. At the time I speculated that maybe the US was just farther into this than Canada and that our rate would eventually catch up to the US.

Since then the gap has only widened.  So far, so good.  For Canada, anyway!

Now taking a higher, global view.   [Boy, some of those US states are really taking it in the shorts.]

So from looking globally, social distancing looks to be working up here in Canada. Maybe Canadians are better at following the guidelines than the Americans, or the Italians or the Spanish.

And what's the old story?  How do you get 50 Canadians out of a pool?  You say, "You Canadians, get out of the pool."

April 14th COVIS Stats

Trend holding steady in number of new COVID cases in Canada, although disturbing uptick the last couple of days.

Almost 700 in Quebec (but as you will see further down, that is actually good news for hem) and Ontario with almost 500 new cases.  And surprisingly, 138 in Alberta.

[As always, click the graphs to zoom in.]

But the true horror story is in the number of recent deaths in Canada.

75 deaths in Quebec yesterday.  And 43 in Ontario.  Almost half of which are in home term care homes.


If we go back to the "flatten the curve" curves, unfortunately, Alberta has had a bit of an uptick.

But if we look at the other view......

Maybe Quebec is starting to turn the corner.

Testing...Testing...Part Deux

COVID testing in Ontario continues to lag all other provinces.  And continues to lag their own directives.

The Premier, Doug Ford, is mystified as to why they are not testing at its alleged capacity of 13,000 per day.

And I'm mystified why he's mystified.  It can't be that hard to figure out.

If I was Premier here's what I would do.  Free beer for everyone!  Okay, then after that, I'd get out a map of Ontario.

And then I'd get the Health Department people to show me where all the COVID testing centres are in Ontario.  And put red dots on that map.

Then have them tell me how many tests each centre can do.  And it should add to 13,000.  As an example:

And then each day have them tell me how many tests were done at each centre.  If there are only 6,000 tests, it would be easy to identify who is lagging.  As another example.....

Then kick their ass!  I mean, investigate the root cause of the delays.

There, I've done it for him.

Now where's that beer?

Do I Have To Do Everything Around Here?

Now people are finally getting the idea that the Western provinces maybe have broken the code on this virus thing.

Hellllo?

The last line in the first paragraph is;  "It does appear that B.C. and Alberta seem to be doing better than Quebec and Ontario."

Does that sound familiar?  No?

No?  Are you too lazy to scroll back to yesterday's post?  Well are ya, punk?

Okay, here it is...  Flattening?  We don't need no stinkin' flattening.

[Ed. Note: You need to get out more.  Well, not even more - even once might help.]

Okay, so let's go to the big finish, yesterday's stats.  New cases.....

The trend is at least in the right direction. With Quebec and Ontario leading the way.  With zero new cases in BC.

But one of yesterday's Golden children, Alberta, had a sizable increase. 


Mortality rate;

Steady, but still high, with 39 new deaths in Quebec and 21 in Ontario.

Almost half of Quebec's 328 deaths have occurred in long term nursing homes. A criminal investigation is underway in one Montreal nursing home after authorities found 31 dead (5 from COVID) after staff had allegedly abandoned it. Tragic.

Can only hope for better days ahead.

Flattening?

So everybody is talking about flattening the curve. We need to flatten the curve.   We can't get back to normal until we flatten the curve.

What does that look like?

Here is a chart looking at "new cases per million population" for our largest four provinces.  I have done this as a rolling 7 day average to smooth out daily bumps.

[As always, click the graphs to zoom in.]

Not sure I like this one as they are all different scales.  With Quebec having the highest rate.

But it is the pattern to look for.

If we are looking for evidence of flattening the curve, Quebec, ahem, is going in the wrong direction. Ontario is not much better.

Alberta looks to be turning the corner.  But B.C. - the social distancing queen (I think I've dated girls like this) looks to have turned the corner a while ago.  Plus their rate was already very low.

Here is a different view, all with the same scale.

Quebec is "off the charts" very early on.  Ontario soon to be as well.

But good work from our Western provinces.

So yesterday's stats, looking at new cases.

Okay, not bad, although this could be mainly due to our Western provinces, as yesterday's increase was almost entirely in the East; over 600 in Quebec & over 400 in Ontario.


The mortality rate not looking as promising.

Although the tall foreheads are saying that "new cases" are more of a leading indicator in trends, while deaths represent patients that are already in the system and ill - actually, ahem, very ill.

And of those 84 deaths, virtually all are in Quebec (48) and Ontario (31).

Amazing how quickly things can change.

[Post Script: I don't know if it is because they seemed to have "turned the corner", but Alberta just announced it would send personal protective equipment and ventilators Ontario (& Quebec & BC).

Ontario will receive: 250,000 N95 masks, 5 million procedural masks, 15 million gloves, 87,000 goggles, 50 ventilators.

That'll do, Alberta, that'll do.]
  

Global View

Haven't shown the global view for a while.  And while we can get lost in the weeds of everything very local and Canuckleheaded, interesting to see what is happening outside our walls.

This chart shows Deaths/million population on the horizontal axis and Cases/million population on the vertical axis.  I've also included some US states.

[As always, click the graphs to zoom in.]

Disturbing to see what a tough time a lot of those American states are having (highlighted in orange).

And although Canada, in red, is tucked in there way down in the lower left corner, maybe it is just a matter of time before we climb up that parade list.  Fingers crossed it is not.

Also interesting is the position of the USA overall, also in red, just up and to the right of Canada.  With several large states so far up and away, this means the vast majority of the states are almost virus free.  Many of these are the small, so called fly-over states, that maybe don't get a lot of visitors, foreign or domestic.

Now, maybe you are thinking, well their cases are low because they are small.  Well, 1) these are per captia measures and 2) some of the smallest countries in the world have the highest rates of infection and death.

For example, San Marino, a small enclave within Italy, has the highest infection and mortality rate in the world, at 10,000 & 1,000 respectively.  You can imagine how far off the chart it would be.

Okay, you don't have to imagine.......

Many smaller countries are right in there with some of the hardest hit European countries and US states.  Canada, again - still - tucked in there in the lower left.

And speaking of Canada,,,,,

New COVID cases seem to have leveled out, at least temporarily.

And deaths as well, sort of.....

And just an observation, as I look in the mirror as I sing Happy Birthday several times a day washing my hands; we have to cut our hair and our eyebrows, but why don't we have to cut our eyelids. What's going on?

And tomorrow, more interesting observations about other hair growth areas......

Just kidding.  I'll post about that later today.

April 9th COVID Stats

[As always, click the graphs to zoom in.]

Almost 900 new cases in Quebec and almost 500 in Ontario.

And a new high for daily deaths in Canada;  41 in Quebec and 26 in Ontario.


Okay, back to self isolation.  And some snacks and drinks.

When this is over, we are all going to have to join Weight Watchers and AA.

Hey. Premier Ford Reads My Blog!

Obviously only one conclusion can be drawn from this.

No sooner had yesterday's blog post gone live - blasting the lack of COVID testing in Ontario - the Premier of Ontario, Doug Ford, clearly read it and called a press conference.

It is encouraging to know that I have the Premier's ear.  If anyone would like me to mention something to him - maybe tickets to a show - please let me know.


Hey.  The Toronto Star Reads My Blog!

Although it wasn't evident from the number of blog "hits" yesterday, the only conclusion that can be drawn is that Canada's largest newspaper also reads my blog.


Holy Cow.  Is Everyone Reading My Blog?

Now a troubleshooter is being brought in to get to the bottom of this testing issue.

[Wow, that guy is really giving the photog the evil stink eye in that picture. I get it, who'd want to have a troubleshooter after you. And your lazy ass friends.]

Although likely too early to see what impact the Urban one's tireless effort will have, let's look at yesterday's COVID stats, starting with number of new cases;

[As always, click the graphics to zoom in.]

Slight increase over Tuesday. Again new cases almost all in Quebec and Ontario.

Here is the provincial breakdown [red line is Canadian average].

Quite a change from just a week ago.

That is slightly misleading as the scales are different.  Here is a chart comparing the different weeks using the same scale.

The takeaway here is that both the Quebec and Ontario rates have almost doubled in a week.  Whereas British Columbia has gone up only 12%.  Hmmmm....

Okay, that is way too much info.  On to the big finish.....

Quebec and Ontario responsible for the majority of the increase.

Those two are the largest provinces, but are the top two of the mortality rate as well.

So let's hope that troubleshooter kicks some lazy ass, well, ass.

Testing....Testing....

We looked at this earlier  [See End of First Quarter for a refresher....] but testing - and lots of it - seems to be key in tackling this invisible virus.  Especially - if recent reports are true - that half of the infected are asymptomatic.

Friends, walking around, smiling at you, getting too close, because they're no danger to you.

Well, to quote from Pogo;  "We have met the enemy, and he is us".  [With apologies/thanks to Walt Kelly, Pogo's late creator.]

[As always, click the graphic to zoom in.]

So if we know testing is good, is needed, is so important.....

...why the H E double hockey sticks is Ontario going low and slow?

That's good for cooking chicken on the BBQ, but not for COVID testing.


Here is a chart of Testing per Million Population for countries.

Canada doesn't look too bad, middle of the pack.

Let's highlight a few notable countries.

Doing more testing than the US and again, kind of middle of the pack compared to the Euros.

But lets highlight one more area of interest;  Canadian provinces, in orange.

Of course, there's Ontario, right at the bottom of the provincial pack.   Although not much different than France, the UK and the US.

Ontario has the capacity to do 13,000 tests per day, but are only doing 3,000-4,000.  With all this hand wringing about needing more help/information, I don't get it.

Oh yeah, yesterday's stats.  New cases holding steady.

 But deaths continue to increase.

Split almost equally between Quebec (29) and Ontario (21).


And one of the saddest casualties to be added to the COVID mortality list......John Prine.

You may not recognize his name, but would most certainly recognize his songs.     I recommend you go to You Tube right now.


From the earl days.....

So long, John, and thanks for all the tears and laughter......

April 6th COVID-19 Statistics

Looking at the number of new cases in Canada, a slight drop from yesterday.

So at least going in the right direction.  Although Ontario & Quebec still are leading the pack, with over 80% of the new cases. [Of course, they represent over 60% of Canada's population.]

Looking at new deaths;

Slight dip in new deaths, with Quebec & Ontario responsible for all but three.

So what can everyone do to help out?


Personally, with all the talk about social distancing and the continuing debate about whether the general public should wear a mask, I think I'm going to be able to kill two bird with one stone.

And, as usual, what's old is new again.

I am going to protect myself the way the Plague Doctors did it back in the 17th Century.

Very simple, really.  Long tunic, broad brimmed hat and beaked mask.

The mask was filled with herbs that were sweet smelling, since their patients certainly were not!

The doctor's cane also had many uses.  The main one was to keep people away.  But also to examine patients.  Which mainly involved poking at them.  I'm guessing to see if they were still alive.


And I think any social distancing problems, say at grocery stores, would take care of themselves.


But just one problem for me.  I've looked everywhere on Amazon, but can't find one.  I suspect they are all sold out.