Flattening?

So everybody is talking about flattening the curve. We need to flatten the curve.   We can't get back to normal until we flatten the curve.

What does that look like?

Here is a chart looking at "new cases per million population" for our largest four provinces.  I have done this as a rolling 7 day average to smooth out daily bumps.

[As always, click the graphs to zoom in.]

Not sure I like this one as they are all different scales.  With Quebec having the highest rate.

But it is the pattern to look for.

If we are looking for evidence of flattening the curve, Quebec, ahem, is going in the wrong direction. Ontario is not much better.

Alberta looks to be turning the corner.  But B.C. - the social distancing queen (I think I've dated girls like this) looks to have turned the corner a while ago.  Plus their rate was already very low.

Here is a different view, all with the same scale.

Quebec is "off the charts" very early on.  Ontario soon to be as well.

But good work from our Western provinces.

So yesterday's stats, looking at new cases.

Okay, not bad, although this could be mainly due to our Western provinces, as yesterday's increase was almost entirely in the East; over 600 in Quebec & over 400 in Ontario.


The mortality rate not looking as promising.

Although the tall foreheads are saying that "new cases" are more of a leading indicator in trends, while deaths represent patients that are already in the system and ill - actually, ahem, very ill.

And of those 84 deaths, virtually all are in Quebec (48) and Ontario (31).

Amazing how quickly things can change.

[Post Script: I don't know if it is because they seemed to have "turned the corner", but Alberta just announced it would send personal protective equipment and ventilators Ontario (& Quebec & BC).

Ontario will receive: 250,000 N95 masks, 5 million procedural masks, 15 million gloves, 87,000 goggles, 50 ventilators.

That'll do, Alberta, that'll do.]