Wednesday 4 November 2020

You'll Only See It Here!

The US election is still not decided, but the crack Arnotti Thoughts research team is going to lay out all the options for you.

Here is the current situation as of 8am Wednesday.


The theme of the night was "too close to call!".

You need 270 electoral votes to win.  Blue states have gone for Biden (238) and Red for Trump (213).

There are seven states undecided.  With two leaning Biden (light blue) and five leaning Trump (pink).

If these leads hold, here is how things look.....

What?!?!

Trump can win?!

I can hear heads exploding all over.  I don't really care, but I don't want to listen to the media, Hollywood types and basketball players cry and wail for four more years.

Okay, take a deep breath. What is some of the Trump leaning states go for Biden?  Maybe Pennsylvania, where Biden campaigned exclusively last week?


Ta dah!!  Biden wins!  The sun will continue to shine!

But, before breaking out the responsibly sourced mineral water, let's see how close Pennsylvania is to flipping to blue.

I'm now adding in the current vote percentages and differences.....


Trump has a huge lead in Pennsylvania.  Almost 13% more than Biden, representing more than 600,000 votes!

Now, only two thirds of the votes have been counted here.  Ahhh....the mysterious "mail in ballots".

Okay, another scenario.  What if Trump wins Pennsylvania (he does have a huge lead) but Michigan flips blue (by far the closest race)?

Hold on to your bonnets.


270!    Biden wins.  

So Michigan is the state to keep your eyes on.

But you know - either way - there will be lawsuits.....


You'll only get it here, folks.




 


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